As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, the Philippines is bracing for a historic fuel price surge next week. Industry experts warn that diesel could soar toward ₱80 to ₱90 per liter following a week of volatile global trading.

Here is a rephrased summary of the current situation and the government’s response:

Massive Fuel Price Hikes Imminent

Local motorists are facing a significant financial blow as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continues to drive global oil prices upward. Based on the first four days of trading this week, industry sources project:

Diesel: An increase of approximately ₱15 to ₱20 per liter.

Gasoline: An increase of nearly ₱8 to ₱10 per liter.

Strategic Government Interventions

To soften the impact, the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Marcos administration are pursuing several strategies:

Staggered Price Hikes: Energy Secretary Sharon Garin confirmed that oil companies are amenable to spreading the massive increase over two to three weeks rather than implementing a "one-time, big-time" jump.

Emergency Diesel Reserves: DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rino Abad announced plans for the Philippine National Oil Co. (PNOC) to procure 1 to 3 million barrels of diesel from regional partners like South Korea, Japan, and Singapore. This "at-cost" reserve would act as a buffer against supply disruptions, particularly as China—which provides 30% of the country’s diesel—suspends exports.

Anti-Hoarding Crackdown: The DOE is working with the PNP and DILG to monitor gas stations for hoarding or premature price jacking. Secretary Garin warned that such acts are "anti-Filipino" and will be met with legal action.

Tax Suspensions: The government is studying a potential suspension of fuel excise taxes if Dubai crude remains above $80 per barrel, though this requires legislative approval.

Current Market Context

Prior to next week’s adjustment, diesel prices in Metro Manila averaged between ₱60.50 and ₱63.19, while gasoline ranged from ₱52.10 to ₱56.90. Energy officials remind the public that the country currently holds a 60-day fuel stock, and they urge consumers to avoid panic buying to prevent market distortion.

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